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The week that was

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2024/09/19

FED cuts rates by 50 basis points.
Breaking: The rate cut was already priced in, Can we expect a end of the year rally ? This may be a time to consider some "risk on" the portfolio. HIT members have discussed small cap names such as IPG, DUR, RDX, CVB, MAD in the past. https://youtu.be/FP9X4TNAy4c

General market commentary 2024.07.16

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  There has been significant change in the market within a relatively short span of time. We have seen macroeconomic headwinds putting downward pressure on share prices, affecting not only small caps but also impacting many beloved large cap names.
Political sentiment has undergone a major shift as well. There has been extensive discourse surrounding the US elections, which is influencing our market. Additionally, recent elections in France and India, both considered emerging markets by many of our investors who have funds invested there, have also had an impact.
We continue to adhere to the standard themes of value investment, preferring to invest in companies with solid fundamentals, strong management, long growth runways, and quality returns. However, there has been a significant shift in rhetoric that we are observing in the market. Market sentiment has recently changed following the Fed meeting, leaving investors with a sense of uncertainty regarding future directions, potentially influencing how companies invest for growth and expansion. Most analysts anticipate interest rates possibly beginning to decline, hopefully just before this year's holiday season. This could lead to a more cautious and sustained, rather than sudden, movement in the share market. By the end of 2024, we expect small caps to outpace large caps in performance. Some companies that are highly preferred and closely watched by our HIT members include John Lyng's Group, Lindsay Australia, and Mader. We have also recently started researching recent IPOs and small caps. In the lithium sector, we are researching Liontown Resources, an underappreciated player. In the medical sector, we are looking at Curvebeam AI, which recently IPOed, and IPG, an electrical goods manufacturer. There is much to explore and possibly start investing in, gradually increasing allocations in your SMSF and personal portfolios. Listen at: https://youtu.be/ix-xwjojz1s

Week ending 2024.04.14

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  We've experienced a significant surge in new capital entering the market over the past four weeks, with purchasing activity spanning all sectors. However, caution is warranted when buying at all-time highs, as we anticipate potential volatility should the Fed opt to withhold rate cuts. The timing of interest rate adjustments is a point of concern, as market observers and participants eagerly await any downward movement.
In this climate, managing risk becomes paramount. It's crucial to avoid investing in companies lacking stable balance sheets and long-term outlooks, as well as steering clear of speculative "story" stocks. Such investments can lead to substantial losses in a volatile market and may take years to recover from. Recent examples include NAN, CGS, CCX, MHJ, DMP, CTT, and CHN.
Discussions on pricing changes are diminishing, and the challenge of labor shortages is easing. Gold remains resilient, reaching record highs. While recession fears and US economic slowdowns are less prominent in news cycles, the number of Fed rate cuts this year—whether it's three or five—remains a topic of debate. However, all indicators suggest the Fed is in no rush to implement rate cuts anytime soon. Consequently, investors may need to exercise patience and refrain from buying on dips until a significant market pullback occurs, ensuring a sufficient margin of safety for investments.
Cyclical stocks may face some concern in principle, but a rotation could be imminent. The Chinese economy might take longer to regain momentum, which could weigh on our iron ore miners such as BHP, MIN, FMG, and RIO. If the Chinese economy fails to rebound, iron ore prices may remain depressed for an extended period.
Healthcare and real estate sectors still offer potential upside and could be worth considering for portfolios, especially since some companies are trading at discounts to their intrinsic values. ANN stood out recently with a notable performance following its announcement of the Kimberly-Clark acquisition, resulting in a more than 10% increase in its share price.
While productivity gains and margin improvements from AI are anticipated, it's important to note that many companies have yet to incorporate these cost savings and future guidance into their AI reports. Merely mentioning AI as a synergistic element in company reports is unlikely to provide a sustained boost to share prices.
Lastly, investors should bear in mind that re-entering a stock after exiting may prove challenging. Listen at: https://youtu.be/95pshOmdh7s

Week ending 2024.01.28

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  The Australia Day long weekend saw many Australians flocking to the beach and parks, and the Australian Open to catch a bit of a tan and tennis, despite temperatures reaching 33 degrees in some parts of Australia. The stock indexes fared quite well, and the S&P 500 in the US made new highs, pushing our local market higher by 2% in weekly gains. The market sentiment is still showing that investors are very cautious, and companies with lower guidance or those taking a so-called non-conformist view to their next year's guidance have been hammered by investors. This was evident by stocks such as DMP and NAN, down over 30%. The commodities sector has seen a bit of selling too, as we saw lithium, iron ore, and nickel prices drag MIN, BHP, and FMG lower at the start of the week. This selling has brought the bargain hunters back to the market, and we saw these quality stocks getting snapped up by investors, all bouncing back by the end of the week with FMG making new highs. Retail and energy sectors continued to perform, with the likes of PMV, LOV, and BOH moving higher..
The standout performer was RMD last week, coming back from as low as 30% during its fall. Many investors have been uncertain about the prospects of RESMED due to the impact of weight loss drugs on the sleep apnea industry. RMD came out this week with some fantastic numbers and reinstated its guidance for the second half of 2024, pushing the stock up by over 6% in one day.
The talk of the town for the last few weeks is uranium, and the news and media have been getting more and more fund managers to update on the prices, and explorers and miners are having their day in the sun. Boss Energy is the preferred flavor of the year, and the share price has moved 40% higher from its recent lows, reaching all-time highs.
There is a lot of distraction with talks about rising inflation, the wars, and RBA's monetary policy impact on consumers, but looking at the way the market has been performing over the last few weeks, one might conclude that the correlation between what is reported in the news and investor psychology is quite unrelated. This can be seen with investors continuing to reward companies with strong balance sheets and ones with long-term steady performance in the markets. As the chartists say, follow the trend, and long-term investors should look at charts steadily heading north over a period of time. https://youtu.be/GmTh4IheBEU

Week ending 2024.01.02

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  Everything changed in one fortnight, from fund managers saying that the FED will continue to hold rates to changing their tune and supporting the dovish FED statement that the markets needed a bit of breather and the FED will consider easing the rates in 2024 as major countries had moved closer to reaching their inflation targets. This led to a flurry of activity in the markets and it seemed like risk off, for most investors as we had an “everything rally” for the last three weeks. Investors seemed to be still cautious with their choice of investments and mostly large and mid-caps were in play. Small caps were still struggling to find momentum and new money was still being invested in companies with strong balance sheets as opposed to companies with forecasted outlooks of possible net income generation in the near future, basically story stocks had no love.
so when the market runs up like it did, it all became about narratives with favourable press coverage driving investor sentiment higher and generally expecting a rosy outlook for the next year. M& A activity still strong, notably closing the week with a bid for our taxi company A2B by Singapore based "comfortdelgro" for a 31% premium to current share price. This saw A2B shares rally over 20%. Oversupply in the lithium market led to a decline in share prices for related stocks. Conversely, iron ore continued its rally, with companies like BHP, RIO, S32, and FMG maintaining gains. The technology sector was a winner, with stocks like ALU and WTC contributing to an over 11% increase in the tech index for December.Some of the best performing stocks last year were NEU, JHX, BOE, BLD. I also note that most valuations of high quality businesses are stretched at the moment due to the changes to the RBA's stance and investors returning to the market in droves. As a result, at the moment, I am conservatively positioned in my portfolio with higher holdings of large caps and companies with stable balance sheets with a long runway ahead for growth. However, for the at-risk part of my portfolio, I hold some small caps such as LAU, IGO, MAD, DUR. In the long run, I think a select few businesses will reap the benefits of technology developments in artificial intelligence space. Reuters says iron ore and copper ended the year higher, as market participants reacted to robust industrial data amid expectation of economic stimulus and robust Chinese demand. They also noted that shares of Australian mining companies have climbed 1.1% as they've tracked iron ore prices higher, and some stocks have hit individual highs such as Rio, BHP & FMG, while PME and REA also moved to new highs on sky high valuations. However, longer term, I believe companies with product innovation and a competitive edge will increasingly take market share through computer enhanced advantage. If I’m going to pay eye-watering multiples for ASX stocks, then i would go with PME, WTC, BHP, REA, ALU, CSL and LOV. Brokers are likely to downgrade, previously overly optimistic price targets for RMD, CSL, COH, ANN as the sector continues to struggle. If this puts downward pressure on their share price, I intend to very slowly and cautiously increase my position in some of these companies. This year was the year of AI and China. This charged up productivity gains and savings in the services sector, prompting more and more companies to mention AI as their R&D projects at the AGM's. Next year will be more politics, and geo political events and one could say that, macro is here to stay. The government has introduced changes to the immigration policy for temporary skilled migrants and students arriving in Australia and staying on a permanent temporary basis reducing the intake from 500k to 375K in 2024. With interest rates now slated to come down, we may see the inflation balancing act difficult to carry out by the FED. Spending may slow down with the consumer more careful with their spending, this may put downward pressure on the consumer discretionary sector and the property sector next year. The S&P/ASX 200 index ended the year 8% higher and we expect a 10% increase in 2024 while the in the US S&P 500 ended the year with an annual gain of just over 24%. A positive outlook for the ASX is based on the anticipated delivery of lower interest rates in Australia and most of the world, a moderate acceleration of real GDP growth, partially supported by rapid population growth and relatively robust demand for commodities, which will support the critical resources sector. The potential interest rate reductions will support the oversight of non-performing bank debt and probably encourage more borrowing, both of which will increase bank profitability. It doesn't take much to fall short of expectations in the stock market by things like earnings, global events and related macro events. It is impossible to plan for these kind of unforeseen circumstances, and, if all the ducks are aligned and businesses are able to consistently outperform market expectations, investors should rest easy and prepare for another uptrend in the Australian stock market next year. https://youtu.be/dWB1vDDv_OQ

Week ending 2023.12.09

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  The last two weeks saw investors flock back into the market, and buying sentiment was almost at its peak. We saw everything get bought—mining, healthcare, retail, IT—until cooler heads prevailed, and we had clarity by the end of last week. Markets are still pricing in aggressive rate cuts next year, and we are already getting signals where, STO made a move, as oil refuses to take a backseat. In consumer discretionary, PMV was a clear winner, as it came out with a positive outlook at its AGM and reinstated their guidance for FY24. Iron ore is unbelievably strong, and we finished the week with a commodity sector rally with the likes of the usual MIN, BHP, FMG, PLS, IMD all getting play.Despite its internal turmoil and negative media sentiment, QAN continues to be favored by investors as its multiple is too attractive to ignore.
Healthcare stocks continue to find support amongst loyal long-term investors, and RMD, CSL, and COH were ticking higher. Investors still need to be a bit more patient and not get too exuberant after the everything rally last week. There is still a lot of risk for the consumer, so we need to be cautious. Look for growth and companies that have reasonable valuations, ones that are not impacted greatly by changes in market conditions. Ones with low leverage on their balance sheets with PEs in the 10-15x range and growing organically. If some of these companies hit earnings targets, a rally would positively fuel margin re-rate potential. If we have a better than average holiday season this year, FY24 will be a very good investment.
There was a bit of profit-taking in mega-cap tech in the US, and the other side of the argument by some analysts is that expectations in demand are being moderated, and that we may expect a slowdown. As said by one of the commentators the other day, maybe we need to realize that the path to a soft landing goes through a hard landing.
There was some fascinating price action in gold, and this says that we should not start to panic or try to hedge in gold, which was at $2200. Gold has now fallen back to the $2000s, signaling a repositioning of the market. On a technical front, a downtrend is emerging in the dollar, so a contrarian approach would be to expect that the dollar may be due for a bounce.
One argument could be that the FED has been trying so hard to fight inflation all through the last 12 months; why would they slow down now, so close to achieving their rate target and taming inflation? This, coupled with a mismatch in the housing demand and banking sectors. A closer look reveals that on the housing supply-demand side, younger households are trying to get into the housing market but are having difficulty funding, as banks continue to keep strict credit policies and retirees are refusing to put their homes on the market. This trend is unlikely to go away in the short to medium term.
Overall, investors need to be cautious lest we find ourselves in a position where we may be staring down a small black hole. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qA008BA6oU

Week ending 2023.11.19

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  Are the markets agreeing with the Fed? We had a bit of a rally last week, with exuberance returning in the retail, IT, and minerals sectors. Stocks such as ALU, CSL, PME, REH, BHP, MIN, BAP, LOV, CTT all made moves. If one looked at the buy-sell activity on LAU, one may have thought that traders had itchy trigger fingers, where we saw (+-) 4% swings in the stock.
In the near term, we could see equities rally as investors start to get more optimistic and start to price the Fed out of the market. In China, the extra monetary and fiscal policy may be drip-fed, and this will support their economy, which may lead to a muted response to demand for our exports. With macro factors such as the election in the US coming up, more conservative investors must be prepared for volatility as the Fed starts to pause. One may not overly diversify but reassess and reaffirm your risk profile and ask yourself if you can stay the course or consider trimming your positions.
The Australian economy is still traveling pretty well, with cashed-up pensioners and a lot of discretionary spending still going on. Record trade inflows are fueling demand, and we need to catch up with inflation as it is running ahead, as we seem to be falling behind the 8-ball in terms of interest rate hikes compared to around the world. With Canada's cash rate at 5%, the US cash rate at 5.5%, and the Australian cash rate at 4.35%, it makes you wonder whether the RBA is giving signals that it might have left room for interest rates to move higher or if we are done with the rate hikes.
Some indications for rate push could be that:. we have a budget surplus of $22 billion, and the US has a budget deficit of over 5% of GDP. . The structure of our mortgage market includes variable mortgage rates, as opposed to long-duration fixed rates in the US and Canada, so the higher rates have been a dampener on their markets. . If we look at the US fixed rates in 2020 and 2021, where people locked in 30-year terms of 2.6 to 4%, they are now laughing all the way to the bank, while variable home loan owners are struggling with the cost of living and interest rate pressures.
We will be watching the medical sector this week, namely, CSL, PME, and RMD. And with the holiday season around the corner, some investors are having a sense of urgency, and some are trying to get transactions completed before the end of the new year, so we may see a slight push in demand in the market over the next couple of weeks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWyRk_HcYH0

Week ending 2023.11.10

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  We had a strong lead from the US at the start of the week. S&P and Dow made a resurgence, pushing confidence higher. Small caps showed a bit of spark, and some notable names were BAP, JLG, TRS, APE, SPZ, which made a new high for the year. Watch out for high debt on some of these stocks, as the RBA rates hike will impact repayment and, in turn, the bottom line for some of these names.
We also still need to remember that when investors start to head for the hills, the first stocks that get thrown out are the small caps, and money flows back into large-cap stocks such as CSL, COH, REH, WTC, some of which are unloved at the moment.
We had the RBA raise the cash rate by 25 basis points, and the Federal Reserve saying, "they will not hesitate to raise rates again." Many analysts have upgraded growth and inflation expectations. The big news story, of course, was the Optus outage, which caused a bit of disruption, but investors were unfazed by the RBA hike; the rates were announced right before the Melbourne Cup race. The Oz markets seemed to like it, buoyed by positive sentiment from the US markets. Property prices continue to go higher from strength to strength, and people are still paying top dollar at auctions, although budgets are stretched. Many investors and new homeowners are getting priced out of certain markets and choosing to stay in that unit a little longer before they decide to purchase the expensive new home. Analysts are expecting another rate increase (hikes come in twos), so plan for at least another rate hike and budget accordingly.
We did see continued macro headwinds, and it seems that investors are still fighting on and showing resilience, continuing to defy odds. On the economic front, debt ceiling negotiations are coming up, so expect maybe a shutdown and some fireworks again in the US Senate.The oil price may remain elevated (crude still over $70), and the energy thematic may get played for a little while longer. By and large, some of the company updates at the AGMs (which are still ongoing) were in line.
After 8 days of the US rally, we had some profit-taking across the board on Friday, but we generally ended the week higher. Slowing in the US and UK will impact export industries. Do not try to change your strategy at the moment and focus on companies generating consistent profit.Still, no sign of when the experts and the gurus are expecting the market to get back into full gear, and so far, the November magic continues to disproves naysayers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxM1NE1gCa0

Week ending 2023.10.28

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  We may be on the cusp of a slowdown in the equity markets, as we saw the S&P ASX 200 ending 1% lower for the week and 0.27% lower for the year to date. However, investors seem to be brushing off the geopolitical news and macroeconomic concerns, investing as if it were business as usual. More mature businesses, such as PME, CSL, and COH, still appear expensive on a relative valuation basis and continue to face headwinds, all heading lower for the week.
Retail investors have shown an affinity for investing in consumer staples, which is the best-performing sector. If we were to consider the big picture and take a long-term outlook instead of a short-term view, stable compounders like RMD, REH, ARB, and BRG could be considered as stocks to hold.
WTC has increased its focus on innovation, which may allow the company to improve its existing logistics products and enhance its customer base. This may provide investors with certainty regarding WTC generating alpha over the next 1-2 years business cycle. However, fund managers do not appear overly positive on the tech sector, which is experiencing some selling pressure.
In this volatile environment, sometimes when investors move in a herd-based on a news cycle push, the whole rhetoric can change rapidly.
Overall, investors should try to analyze companies and make their choices based on unit economics, such as free cash flow, and a company's ability to adapt to changes in pricing and interest rate increases.
There have been some indications that the new RBA governor may consider raising the cash rate if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation.
keep an eye out for US earnings coming in next week as well and continue managing positions if the market moves into further correction. And if there is a slow down then what the future look like only time will tell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1iW4f0wdU4

Week ending 2023.10.13

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  Investors' mettle was tested, especially those who were holding tech and healthcare stocks. Many were left asking themselves, "How long can you hold? Is the investment thesis broken?" RMD, CSL, PME, ANN - all were hit pretty hard. Fund managers have been going around trying to keep the enthusiasm by touting that this may be a good buying opportunity for these stocks. Investors still seemed uncertain about which direction to pursue, flip-flopping from one theme to the next. We had a lot of news over the last two weeks, from the unrest in the Middle East to the interest rates being kept on hold and higher petrol pricing.
It looks like the more likely scenario will be interest rates staying higher for longer, and then maybe the Fed will look at adjusting the rates and increasing them two or three times further down the line next year. Many investors were trying to solve the riddle of "To invest in safety or not?" and this has led to the, gold and energy stocks the likes of STO, NST, RMS saw a slight push.
Where to go from here: the primary investment selection criteria should still hold. So before investing in any company, investors should be looking at the company's margins, how they will be impacted by the rising cost of debt, what their general outlook is, and what the demand for their services and products will be going forward.
The next few weeks will determine how resilient the consumer is in the face of continuing odds (consolidation, negative news cycles, earnings season in the US, inflationary pressures, and bond yields breaking out to the upside). And if the stars align we can expect a market rally in the last couple of months of this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5IbA7Wj6bU

Week ending 2023.09.22

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  We had a difficult session on the ASX, with the Federal reserve in the US keeping interest rates on hold, but wants to keep the door open for possible rate hikes indicating rates may stay higher for longer. The All ORDs ended the week 2.4% lower.
Bond yields are pushing higher, with seasonal and cylical stocks stuggling, and this has bought the value investors back into the market. mining stocks staged a turn around with the likes of Minres clawing back 7% by the end of the week.
Oil price marked a turn around and this helped with the energy names, while some sectors struggled as a higher oil price is also very inflationationary. Energy stocks such as WDS, WHC, STO, KAR had been the key theme this week and continued to provide stability to the market by not giving in and falling as much as the other sectors. Some stocks saw lower prices due to dividends being paid out and stocks going ex-dividend. The REITS sector performed the worst, and the technology sector also suffered due to weakness on Wall Street. Retailers presented a mixed picture.
On the retail front consumers are facing cost of living pressures which may hit the bottom line of some of the retailers and sales might be more challenging this quarter. TPW was down 6% for the week, KMD brands had annual reporting this week, with strong revenue uptick of 13% and net profit down by 6 tenths of a percent.
Med names CSL and Resmed continued to be under pressure and RMD dropped a further 5% this week. It appears that the short sellers are not letting go and IEL, made it to the top 5 list of most shorted stocks this week. IDP eduction was hit hard today and was down over 5%. Perhaps its a good time to consider investing in the education sector now? . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qxaR6z36Zc

Week ending 2023.09.15

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  The highly anticipated US inflation report for August, which had been expected to make waves in the markets this week, turned out to be a bit of a non-event. Despite the inflation number coming in higher than expected at 3.7% (compared to the previous month's 3.2% in July), market participants seemed unfazed. Now, the focus has shifted to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is expected to ease off the brakes and potentially raise interest rates in the coming month.
In the world of financial markets, it's crucial to stay ahead of the curve, and one might have hoped that investors would have taken this impending change into account and slowed down their buying activity. However, instead of a cautious approach, the markets reacted with confusion, leading to increased speculative trading. Even stable stocks like Wisetech, Resmed, BHP, and Breville saw significant fluctuations in their prices, with swings of 2-3% becoming commonplace. Smaller companies like Telix Pharma and Starpharma also experienced dramatic price movements, driven by positive news across their respective industries.
As the week drew to a close, our market remained resilient, finishing strong. However, it's worth noting that the US market closed lower on Friday, so we can anticipate a somewhat weaker start to our markets on September 18, 2023. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR2Ae3cvdSs

Week ending 2023.09.01

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  Stars of the week were retail providers as the risk appetite returned among retail investors. Jackson Hall's comments from the FED also helped, reinforcing the soft landing debate. The rally had been fantastic during this week, greatly aided by some good results from the retail sector. AI is playing an important role in online stores, and this has been heavily promoted by retail stores.
Taking a page from the Nvidia story, it's like AI is here to stay and will be driving the media and companies' annual reports. Data collected, such as the number of visitors, seasonal buying, area code location flagging, categorizing, and displaying products to cater to visitors according to their preferences, supply chain management, inventory control, product design, marketing effectiveness, and predictive analysis for safety processes, are all AI tools highlighted by online retailers. Iron ore was the talk of last week, and with BHP pulling back, what happens in China has greatly influenced not only BHP but also the iron ore market in general. However, iron ore prices have stubbornly stayed above $100. FMG's woes continued with a steady stream of management personnel leaving the company, including the exit of the CEO and CFO of its metals division this week. This got investors contemplating whether to sell or hold FMG.
Companies saw 10% moves in either direction, with consumer discretionary businesses with strong balance sheets and reasonable outlooks being favored by investors, resulting in 4% daily swings throughout the week. And who would have predicted that IGO would come out with a stunner? The IGO annual results pushed the price up by 5%, putting a smile on the faces of long-term holders. Just when you thought the lithium play was out, they pulled it back in.
Week ending 2023.08.25
ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ  Earnings season is rolling through, and some of the stocks on our team members' watchlists are making major moves. It has been coming fast and thick, with a double whammy of the Jackson Symposium and earnings reports. Many investors who love their dividend stocks were surprised, especially those in the retail sector. The US equity markets had a minor rally led by Nvidia, which generally pushed the NASDAQ higher. Companies that missed earnings by even a small margin were punished by investors. The past week resembled more of a stock picker's market, with investors buying and selling based on results almost every day.
This does not bode well for ethical investors who follow Islamic principles for investing. On the other hand, long-term investors have taken all the negativity and positive moves in their stride and are holding on. Macro talk is still revolving around interest rates, bond market movements, and the China story. This has put cyclical stocks out of favor, and the mineral/lithium sector is seeing some steam come off. Market sentiment is still bullish, and investors are behaving as if the worst is behind us. Any serious investor who follows the market on a daily basis will notice a high influx of buying in the small caps sector, with investors paying no heed to risk and hunting for bargains. The full impact of interest rates is still to come, and a 100 bips on your average $800K mortgage should increase $525 in repayments over the next few months. Clearly, inflation is here to stay, and investors should only be looking for value regardless of market conditions.
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